2011: The Temperature So Far

Global averaged temperature data is now available for the first three months of 2011, 25 per cent of the year’s data. I thought it would be interesting to look at it through the eyes of the HadCrut3 and NasaGiss datasets.Clearly the influence of the cooling La Nina is strong, but there is something else that can be tentatively deduced from the data.HadCrut32011January, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000 (aprox equal), 1999, 1998, 1995, 1992, 1991, 1988, 1983, 1981.February, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1995, 1991 (aprox equal), 1983.March, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1998, 1990.NasaGiss2011January, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 1998, 1988, 1981.February, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1996 (aprox equal), 1995, 1991.March, cooler than 2010, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2002, 1990.According to NasaGiss 2011 is, so far, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 1999, 1998, 1995, 1988 (aprox equal). That makes 2011 the 12^th warmest start to the year on record.The fact that the figures stretch so far back, note the appearance of dates as far back as the early 80’s in HadCrut database, emphasises the now undisputed fact that, for whatever reason, the annual global average temperature has not increased since 2001, allowing a La Nina to reach the temperatures of such relatively early years.No one knows exactly how long the cooling influence of the La Nina will continue but it may be that 2011 is on course to be much cooler than most of the years of the past decade and possibly earlier.The first three months of 2010 were the second warmest start to a year ever recorded, according to NasaGiss. Hence it was about this time in 2010 that some scientists and media commentators started ‘projecting’ that 2010 would be the warmest year ever. It wasn’t. However, I wonder if anyone from the same camp would at this time care to make a similar projection for 2011? Of course this time some might remember the cooling influence of La Nina as an explanation in contrast to their forgetfulness concerning the very strong El Nino of last year that elevated Spring temperatures.Feedback: david.whitehouse@netzerowatch.com