Starmer’s energy fantasy

At COP29, Sir Keir Starmer has committed to cutting UK greenhouse gas emissions by 81% by 2035 compared to 1990. This post attempts to illustrate what the implications and feasibility of his plan.

All of the data discussed are from the  Statistical Review of World Energy 2024.

In 1990, UK carbon emissions were 595.2 million tonnes, so by 2035, they should be 19% of this value – 113 million tonnes. By 2023, they had already fallen to 327 million tonnes. So, if other greenhouse gas sources (e.g. livestock farming) are excluded, fossil fuel energy contribution in 2035 has to be reduced by 65% (1-113/327) compared to 2023.

Also in 2023, fossil fuels (gas and oil mostly) provided 5.26 exajoules (10^18 joules) of energy. If 65% of this has to be replaced, UK has to find 3.44 exajoules of CO2-neutral energy. Let us assume that – miraculously – we will reduce our primary energy consumption by 40% by 2035. We will still need to find 2.06 exajoules of CO2-free energy. This is equivalent to providing 65.3 GW of continuous CO2-free energy. Doing so would involve building 22 nuclear power plants of the size of Hinckley point C or 187 GW of wind (assuming a capacity factor of 35%). Currently, the fleet average for wind power in the UK is 31%; that is, if you have 1 GW installed, you get 0.31 GW averaged over the year (for solar, the capacity factor is 11%). For reference, currently the installed wind capacity is 30.2 GW.

The UK cannot really build 22 Hinckley point Cs or install six times the current wind capacity in the next 12 years. So there has to be a massive change in lifestyle on top of the 60% reduction in energy consumption assumed – huge reductions in meat and dairy consumption, aviation, steel and cement industries.

In conclusion, Mr Starmer’s plans appear to be fantasy.