Are Labour sleepwalking to energy disaster?

It now looks likely that Labour will form the next government. However, it is also probable that Keir Starmer’s administration will, during its term of office, face an unprecedented energy crisis. This article explains why.

On a typical working day in winter, UK demand for electricity varies between 35 and 45 GW. supplied from an array of power plants (Figure 1)

Figure 1: UK electricity generation capacity by type

Building such a large amount of generation (the total capacity is 97 GW) to deliver a maximum of 45 GW goes a long way to explaining why our electricity bills have trebled since 2000.

However, renewables are intermittent (see video below). Dunkelflautes – weeks in the depths of winter when there is no wind and no solar generation – hit the country most years. Worse, wind droughts – the last one in 2021 – can last for years. And of course solar generation is negligible between October and April, and zero every night. Interconnectors are supposed to serve as backup power when our renewable generation is scarce, but can we reliably draw down energy from another grid when it might also have a shortage? We frequently share high pressure systems with the whole of Europe, during which windspeeds are low.  These can occur in winter, when demand is at its highest.

As a result, we will remain critically dependent on our nuclear and combined cycle gas generation (CCGT) turbines to deliver power when renewables let us down.

And herein lies the problem — a significant proportion of our reliable generation capacity is due for closure over the next few years. For example, all of our existing nuclear power stations will be retired by 2031. The only replacement in the offing is Hinkley Point C, due for completion in 2027 (although industry rumour has it that 2030 is more likely). There is a plan to build a further 24 GW, but that’s in the distant future.

Meanwhile, CCGT plants are being retired too, as they reach the end of their 25-year lifetimes. There is little enthusiasm among investors build new ones either, even with subsidies available. These machines work best when run flat out, and all those renewables mean that will happen only rarely.

Finally, Britain’s last coal-fired power station is due for closure within months.

The upshot is that by 2025 – the first full year of a Labour government – we may have just 18 GW of nuclear and gas left (Figure 2). By the end of its term of office, the total may have fallen to as low as 12 GW. Extending the lives of nuclear power stations, if safety regulators allow it, might add a bit more, and there is biomass too. However, if, as noted above, demand peaks at 45 GW or more, it is hard to imagine how we will avoid a serious crisis, with unsustainable electricity prices, black- and brown-outs, or both.

Figure 2: Nuclear and CCGT capacity, past and projected

These figures should cause those at the top of the Labour Party to pause for thought. Are they sleepwalking to disaster?