Your predictions please, for the temperature in 2024
Each year we invite readers to predict the temperature for the year ahead, as measured by the Met Office Hadley Centre. This has turned into a fun competition between Net Zero Watch and the Met Office scientists, with our readers sometimes managing to beat the egg heads of Exeter, but sometimes also being soundly beaten by the boffins.
For 2023, the most common prediction was 1.18°C, roughly in the middle of the Met Office’s range of 1.08—1.32°C. This can all be seen in Figure 1.
Figure 1: 2023 global temperature — predictions and outcome
However, as you also can see, the winner this year was Nature itself, with the majority of readers and the Met Office not even close to the correct figure of 1.46°C, fully 0.3°C above 2022. This surge in temperatures has been variously ascribed to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano in 2022, and to El Nino. It’s interesting, however, that the Met Office’s model (built around “basic physics”) didn’t get this even close to correct.
You can see, however, that one of our readers did pretty well, so we might, with a little bit of brass neck (well, quite a lot actually), chalk this up as a victory to Net Zero Watch!
Which brings us nicely on to this year’s competition. Will temperatures fall away again, or are they stuck here for good? Your guess is as good as mine, and probably the Met Office’s to boot.
If you’d like to take part, simply give us your prediction below. The Met Office reckon it’s not coming down, and their range for 2024 is centred on the same value as last year — 1.46°C.
As always, the winner will get win a bottle of something to drink, and their choice of a book from the GWPF or Net Zero Watch ranges. Good luck!
2024 entry form
The competition is now closed for entries. Good luck!